Trader consensus assigns a 62% implied probability to "Other" for the best AI model on September 28, reflecting uncertainty after Anthropic's rapid releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and Opus 5.5 on September 22, alongside OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra leading some September benchmarks. Fable 5.1-max holds 35.5% odds due to its documented gains in long-horizon agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks, where it often outperforms prior Opus variants at comparable pricing. The low single-digit shares for Opus 5 and 4.x models underscore trader focus on the newest frontier capabilities rather than established lines. With resolution imminent, any last-minute benchmark updates or competitive announcements could shift the narrow gap between leading Claude options and the broad "Other" category.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअन्य 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 35%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
नया
नया
28 सित, 2026
अन्य
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
35%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
अन्य 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 35%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
नया
नया
28 सित, 2026
अन्य
$799 वॉल्यूम
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$452 वॉल्यूम
35%
claude-opus-5-high
$137 वॉल्यूम
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$144 वॉल्यूम
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$166 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns a 62% implied probability to "Other" for the best AI model on September 28, reflecting uncertainty after Anthropic's rapid releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and Opus 5.5 on September 22, alongside OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra leading some September benchmarks. Fable 5.1-max holds 35.5% odds due to its documented gains in long-horizon agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks, where it often outperforms prior Opus variants at comparable pricing. The low single-digit shares for Opus 5 and 4.x models underscore trader focus on the newest frontier capabilities rather than established lines. With resolution imminent, any last-minute benchmark updates or competitive announcements could shift the narrow gap between leading Claude options and the broad "Other" category.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,696समाप्ति तिथि
28 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns a 62% implied probability to "Other" for the best AI model on September 28, reflecting uncertainty after Anthropic's rapid releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and Opus 5.5 on September 22, alongside OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra leading some September benchmarks. Fable 5.1-max holds 35.5% odds due to its documented gains in long-horizon agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks, where it often outperforms prior Opus variants at comparable pricing. The low single-digit shares for Opus 5 and 4.x models underscore trader focus on the newest frontier capabilities rather than established lines. With resolution imminent, any last-minute benchmark updates or competitive announcements could shift the narrow gap between leading Claude options and the broad "Other" category.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$1,696समाप्ति तिथि
28 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47de9d...Trader consensus assigns a 62% implied probability to "Other" for the best AI model on September 28, reflecting uncertainty after Anthropic's rapid releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and Opus 5.5 on September 22, alongside OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra leading some September benchmarks. Fable 5.1-max holds 35.5% odds due to its documented gains in long-horizon agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks, where it often outperforms prior Opus variants at comparable pricing. The low single-digit shares for Opus 5 and 4.x models underscore trader focus on the newest frontier capabilities rather than established lines. With resolution imminent, any last-minute benchmark updates or competitive announcements could shift the narrow gap between leading Claude options and the broad "Other" category.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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