Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations that President Trump will not grant one by the end of 2026. Maxwell has exhausted nearly all appellate options, leaving a presidential pardon as her primary remaining path, yet Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House officials have described the matter as not under consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the possibility while stating he has not thought about it or received formal requests, underscoring the substantial political risks tied to Maxwell’s conviction for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. These institutional and public pressures explain the 95% implied probability on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$748,309 Vol.
$748,309 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
5% chance
$748,309 Vol.
$748,309 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations that President Trump will not grant one by the end of 2026. Maxwell has exhausted nearly all appellate options, leaving a presidential pardon as her primary remaining path, yet Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House officials have described the matter as not under consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the possibility while stating he has not thought about it or received formal requests, underscoring the substantial political risks tied to Maxwell’s conviction for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. These institutional and public pressures explain the 95% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$748,309Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations that President Trump will not grant one by the end of 2026. Maxwell has exhausted nearly all appellate options, leaving a presidential pardon as her primary remaining path, yet Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House officials have described the matter as not under consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the possibility while stating he has not thought about it or received formal requests, underscoring the substantial political risks tied to Maxwell’s conviction for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. These institutional and public pressures explain the 95% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$748,309Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations that President Trump will not grant one by the end of 2026. Maxwell has exhausted nearly all appellate options, leaving a presidential pardon as her primary remaining path, yet Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House officials have described the matter as not under consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the possibility while stating he has not thought about it or received formal requests, underscoring the substantial political risks tied to Maxwell’s conviction for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. These institutional and public pressures explain the 95% implied probability on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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