Recent diplomatic developments have anchored trader consensus around a "No" outcome for any U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026. A security agreement signed September 22, 2026, by the United States, Denmark, and Greenland expanded American military access and presence on the island while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and ruling out force. President Trump publicly confirmed the deal addressed U.S. security priorities without military action, following months of tensions over annexation proposals. As a NATO ally territory, any invasion would trigger alliance obligations, international isolation, and severe economic fallout. With the calendar advancing into late 2026 and no active military planning reported, the 97.4% implied probability reflects this de-escalation. Remaining tail risks include abrupt shifts in Arctic strategy or unforeseen bilateral breakdowns, though these appear remote given the formalized pact.