The near-term resolution deadline of September 30, 2026, combined with the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistical indicators, underpins trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next ten days. Beijing maintains pressure through gray-zone activities such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and drone reconnaissance near Taiwanese exercises, while official statements emphasize diplomatic channels including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full multi-axis amphibious assault remain limited at present, with exercises focused more on blockade scenarios. Taiwan continues precision-strike drills and unmanned systems integration under President Lai Ching-te. Late-breaking events such as an unforeseen crisis or rapid escalation could theoretically shift conditions, though no such signals have emerged.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$2,160,647 Vol.
$2,160,647 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$2,160,647 Vol.
$2,160,647 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-term resolution deadline of September 30, 2026, combined with the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistical indicators, underpins trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next ten days. Beijing maintains pressure through gray-zone activities such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and drone reconnaissance near Taiwanese exercises, while official statements emphasize diplomatic channels including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full multi-axis amphibious assault remain limited at present, with exercises focused more on blockade scenarios. Taiwan continues precision-strike drills and unmanned systems integration under President Lai Ching-te. Late-breaking events such as an unforeseen crisis or rapid escalation could theoretically shift conditions, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,160,647Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-term resolution deadline of September 30, 2026, combined with the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistical indicators, underpins trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next ten days. Beijing maintains pressure through gray-zone activities such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and drone reconnaissance near Taiwanese exercises, while official statements emphasize diplomatic channels including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full multi-axis amphibious assault remain limited at present, with exercises focused more on blockade scenarios. Taiwan continues precision-strike drills and unmanned systems integration under President Lai Ching-te. Late-breaking events such as an unforeseen crisis or rapid escalation could theoretically shift conditions, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,160,647Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The near-term resolution deadline of September 30, 2026, combined with the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistical indicators, underpins trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next ten days. Beijing maintains pressure through gray-zone activities such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and drone reconnaissance near Taiwanese exercises, while official statements emphasize diplomatic channels including an upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry note that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full multi-axis amphibious assault remain limited at present, with exercises focused more on blockade scenarios. Taiwan continues precision-strike drills and unmanned systems integration under President Lai Ching-te. Late-breaking events such as an unforeseen crisis or rapid escalation could theoretically shift conditions, though no such signals have emerged.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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