China's 2026 GDP growth has settled in the 4.0–5.0% range as the dominant trader consensus at 89.5%, consistent with official targets and multiple institutional forecasts clustering near 4.4–4.8%. First-half results came in at 4.7% year-on-year, supported by resilient high-tech exports and public investment even as domestic consumption and the property sector remained subdued. August trade data showed exports rising 25% year-on-year on AI-related and mechanical-electrical goods, while recent tariff reductions with the United States provided modest external relief. Persistent headwinds include weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment softness, and elevated youth unemployment, prompting calibrated fiscal stimulus through bond issuance and infrastructure priorities. These offsetting dynamics have kept full-year outcomes firmly inside the 4–5% band, with only marginal probabilities assigned to faster or slower brackets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.9%
9,0 %+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
30 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
90%
5,0–6,0 %
6%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
1%
4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.9%
9,0 %+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0 % 1.4%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
30 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
$68,051 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$222,330 Vol.
90%
5,0–6,0 %
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6,0-7,0 %
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$54,234 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$116,748 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth has settled in the 4.0–5.0% range as the dominant trader consensus at 89.5%, consistent with official targets and multiple institutional forecasts clustering near 4.4–4.8%. First-half results came in at 4.7% year-on-year, supported by resilient high-tech exports and public investment even as domestic consumption and the property sector remained subdued. August trade data showed exports rising 25% year-on-year on AI-related and mechanical-electrical goods, while recent tariff reductions with the United States provided modest external relief. Persistent headwinds include weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment softness, and elevated youth unemployment, prompting calibrated fiscal stimulus through bond issuance and infrastructure priorities. These offsetting dynamics have kept full-year outcomes firmly inside the 4–5% band, with only marginal probabilities assigned to faster or slower brackets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$898,218Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth has settled in the 4.0–5.0% range as the dominant trader consensus at 89.5%, consistent with official targets and multiple institutional forecasts clustering near 4.4–4.8%. First-half results came in at 4.7% year-on-year, supported by resilient high-tech exports and public investment even as domestic consumption and the property sector remained subdued. August trade data showed exports rising 25% year-on-year on AI-related and mechanical-electrical goods, while recent tariff reductions with the United States provided modest external relief. Persistent headwinds include weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment softness, and elevated youth unemployment, prompting calibrated fiscal stimulus through bond issuance and infrastructure priorities. These offsetting dynamics have kept full-year outcomes firmly inside the 4–5% band, with only marginal probabilities assigned to faster or slower brackets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$898,218Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 GDP growth has settled in the 4.0–5.0% range as the dominant trader consensus at 89.5%, consistent with official targets and multiple institutional forecasts clustering near 4.4–4.8%. First-half results came in at 4.7% year-on-year, supported by resilient high-tech exports and public investment even as domestic consumption and the property sector remained subdued. August trade data showed exports rising 25% year-on-year on AI-related and mechanical-electrical goods, while recent tariff reductions with the United States provided modest external relief. Persistent headwinds include weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment softness, and elevated youth unemployment, prompting calibrated fiscal stimulus through bond issuance and infrastructure priorities. These offsetting dynamics have kept full-year outcomes firmly inside the 4–5% band, with only marginal probabilities assigned to faster or slower brackets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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