Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessed in its August 2026 report that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment capacity for a full-scale invasion. Chinese military activity around the island has declined sharply in 2026, with aerial sorties and large exercises well below prior-year levels, while Beijing emphasizes gray-zone coercion, coast-guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals instead. Ongoing purges within the PLA have further disrupted command readiness. Taiwan continues to accelerate drone, missile, and joint-strike capabilities, and upcoming U.S.-China diplomatic engagement provides an additional channel for managing tensions. Traders price these factors as strong evidence against an invasion before the June 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
8% chance
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
8% chance
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessed in its August 2026 report that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment capacity for a full-scale invasion. Chinese military activity around the island has declined sharply in 2026, with aerial sorties and large exercises well below prior-year levels, while Beijing emphasizes gray-zone coercion, coast-guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals instead. Ongoing purges within the PLA have further disrupted command readiness. Taiwan continues to accelerate drone, missile, and joint-strike capabilities, and upcoming U.S.-China diplomatic engagement provides an additional channel for managing tensions. Traders price these factors as strong evidence against an invasion before the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$450,575Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessed in its August 2026 report that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment capacity for a full-scale invasion. Chinese military activity around the island has declined sharply in 2026, with aerial sorties and large exercises well below prior-year levels, while Beijing emphasizes gray-zone coercion, coast-guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals instead. Ongoing purges within the PLA have further disrupted command readiness. Taiwan continues to accelerate drone, missile, and joint-strike capabilities, and upcoming U.S.-China diplomatic engagement provides an additional channel for managing tensions. Traders price these factors as strong evidence against an invasion before the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$450,575Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessed in its August 2026 report that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, air-sea control, and sustainment capacity for a full-scale invasion. Chinese military activity around the island has declined sharply in 2026, with aerial sorties and large exercises well below prior-year levels, while Beijing emphasizes gray-zone coercion, coast-guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals instead. Ongoing purges within the PLA have further disrupted command readiness. Taiwan continues to accelerate drone, missile, and joint-strike capabilities, and upcoming U.S.-China diplomatic engagement provides an additional channel for managing tensions. Traders price these factors as strong evidence against an invasion before the June 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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