Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
12% chance
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
12% chance
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,236,740Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,236,740Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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