**Regulatory and political barriers remain the dominant factor keeping the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** Despite Apple's June 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Entity List—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price surges—CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list creates ongoing reputational and licensing risks. Reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR DRAM for China-market devices, and the Chinese firm's CEO signaled openness to partnership following its September 2026 fifth-generation platform mass production. However, high fab utilization, capacity booked through 2027, Republican opposition, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements for 2026 production sustain trader skepticism that a full commercial purchase will materialize before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
21% chance
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
21% chance
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and political barriers remain the dominant factor keeping the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** Despite Apple's June 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Entity List—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price surges—CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list creates ongoing reputational and licensing risks. Reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR DRAM for China-market devices, and the Chinese firm's CEO signaled openness to partnership following its September 2026 fifth-generation platform mass production. However, high fab utilization, capacity booked through 2027, Republican opposition, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements for 2026 production sustain trader skepticism that a full commercial purchase will materialize before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$22,350Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and political barriers remain the dominant factor keeping the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** Despite Apple's June 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Entity List—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price surges—CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list creates ongoing reputational and licensing risks. Reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR DRAM for China-market devices, and the Chinese firm's CEO signaled openness to partnership following its September 2026 fifth-generation platform mass production. However, high fab utilization, capacity booked through 2027, Republican opposition, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements for 2026 production sustain trader skepticism that a full commercial purchase will materialize before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$22,350Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Regulatory and political barriers remain the dominant factor keeping the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** Despite Apple's June 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances against CXMT's potential addition to the Commerce Entity List—driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages and price surges—CXMT's placement on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list creates ongoing reputational and licensing risks. Reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR DRAM for China-market devices, and the Chinese firm's CEO signaled openness to partnership following its September 2026 fifth-generation platform mass production. However, high fab utilization, capacity booked through 2027, Republican opposition, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements for 2026 production sustain trader skepticism that a full commercial purchase will materialize before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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