The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet through mid-September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes formed to date amid a strengthening El Niño that suppresses activity through increased wind shear and drier air. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a below-normal year overall, with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected for the full season and low probabilities of U.S. landfalls at Category 4–5 strength. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events, occurring only a handful of times in the continental U.S. record. With peak activity windows closing and current steering patterns directing any late systems away from land, traders assign just a 3.6% implied probability to a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Unlikely but possible shifts could arise from an abrupt El Niño collapse enabling rapid late-season intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet through mid-September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes formed to date amid a strengthening El Niño that suppresses activity through increased wind shear and drier air. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a below-normal year overall, with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected for the full season and low probabilities of U.S. landfalls at Category 4–5 strength. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events, occurring only a handful of times in the continental U.S. record. With peak activity windows closing and current steering patterns directing any late systems away from land, traders assign just a 3.6% implied probability to a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Unlikely but possible shifts could arise from an abrupt El Niño collapse enabling rapid late-season intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$142,105Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet through mid-September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes formed to date amid a strengthening El Niño that suppresses activity through increased wind shear and drier air. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a below-normal year overall, with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected for the full season and low probabilities of U.S. landfalls at Category 4–5 strength. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events, occurring only a handful of times in the continental U.S. record. With peak activity windows closing and current steering patterns directing any late systems away from land, traders assign just a 3.6% implied probability to a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Unlikely but possible shifts could arise from an abrupt El Niño collapse enabling rapid late-season intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$142,105Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet through mid-September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes formed to date amid a strengthening El Niño that suppresses activity through increased wind shear and drier air. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a below-normal year overall, with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected for the full season and low probabilities of U.S. landfalls at Category 4–5 strength. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events, occurring only a handful of times in the continental U.S. record. With peak activity windows closing and current steering patterns directing any late systems away from land, traders assign just a 3.6% implied probability to a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. Unlikely but possible shifts could arise from an abrupt El Niño collapse enabling rapid late-season intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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