Google's persistent delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 preview, continue to shape trader views on the next Pro release. The model remains in partner testing amid shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, prompting Google to prioritize frequent Gemini Flash iterations—including the September 2 launch of 3.8 Flash variants—while advancing pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4. This pattern of iterative lightweight updates and extended development timelines for frontier Pro models supports the market's elevated probability on no release by November 1, with October windows reflecting potential resolution catalysts like new internal benchmarks or official timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre 36%
12–18 octobre 16%
28 septembre–4 octobre 13.7%
19 octobre–25 octobre 6.6%
$42,746 Vol.
$42,746 Vol.
7–13 septembre
3%
14–20 septembre
4%
21 septembre–27 septembre
7%
28 septembre–4 octobre
11%
5 octobre – 11 octobre
3%
12–18 octobre
16%
19 octobre–25 octobre
7%
26 octobre–1er novembre
3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre
36%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre 36%
12–18 octobre 16%
28 septembre–4 octobre 13.7%
19 octobre–25 octobre 6.6%
$42,746 Vol.
$42,746 Vol.
7–13 septembre
3%
14–20 septembre
4%
21 septembre–27 septembre
7%
28 septembre–4 octobre
11%
5 octobre – 11 octobre
3%
12–18 octobre
16%
19 octobre–25 octobre
7%
26 octobre–1er novembre
3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre
36%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google's persistent delays for the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 preview, continue to shape trader views on the next Pro release. The model remains in partner testing amid shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, prompting Google to prioritize frequent Gemini Flash iterations—including the September 2 launch of 3.8 Flash variants—while advancing pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4. This pattern of iterative lightweight updates and extended development timelines for frontier Pro models supports the market's elevated probability on no release by November 1, with October windows reflecting potential resolution catalysts like new internal benchmarks or official timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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