Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy recently stating that accession could provide security guarantees and help resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO allies have reaffirmed an "irreversible path" to full integration through interoperability programs, the NATO-Ukraine Council, and pledges of sustained military support into 2027, without any formal signals of conditioning aid on neutrality. Recent diplomatic engagements, including Canadian backing and alliance declarations recognizing Ukraine's security contributions, align with this stance. No verifiable developments indicate Kyiv considering an agreement to forgo membership before 2027, sustaining trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for the "No" outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
$153,574 Vol.
$153,574 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
$153,574 Vol.
$153,574 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy recently stating that accession could provide security guarantees and help resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO allies have reaffirmed an "irreversible path" to full integration through interoperability programs, the NATO-Ukraine Council, and pledges of sustained military support into 2027, without any formal signals of conditioning aid on neutrality. Recent diplomatic engagements, including Canadian backing and alliance declarations recognizing Ukraine's security contributions, align with this stance. No verifiable developments indicate Kyiv considering an agreement to forgo membership before 2027, sustaining trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$153,574Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy recently stating that accession could provide security guarantees and help resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO allies have reaffirmed an "irreversible path" to full integration through interoperability programs, the NATO-Ukraine Council, and pledges of sustained military support into 2027, without any formal signals of conditioning aid on neutrality. Recent diplomatic engagements, including Canadian backing and alliance declarations recognizing Ukraine's security contributions, align with this stance. No verifiable developments indicate Kyiv considering an agreement to forgo membership before 2027, sustaining trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$153,574Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy recently stating that accession could provide security guarantees and help resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO allies have reaffirmed an "irreversible path" to full integration through interoperability programs, the NATO-Ukraine Council, and pledges of sustained military support into 2027, without any formal signals of conditioning aid on neutrality. Recent diplomatic engagements, including Canadian backing and alliance declarations recognizing Ukraine's security contributions, align with this stance. No verifiable developments indicate Kyiv considering an agreement to forgo membership before 2027, sustaining trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for the "No" outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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