NATO members have not faced any armed attack on their territory or forces meeting the Article 5 threshold since the market opened in late 2025. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has remained contained without crossing alliance borders, while Russian airspace violations and drone incursions into Poland and Romania prompted only Article 4 consultations. At the July 2026 Ankara summit, all 32 allies reaffirmed their "ironclad commitment" to collective defense without any invocation occurring. U.S. intelligence assessments flag potential Russian hybrid probes in coming years but assign low near-term probability to actions that would clearly trigger the clause. With only a few months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no active escalation involving member states, traders see little basis for an imminent invocation.