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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38

Polymarket

$28,006 Vol.

Polymarket

$28,006 Vol.

Jon Bonck (R)

$17,956 Vol.

93%

Melissa McDonough (D)

$10,050 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre TX-37 ?

Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre TX-37 ?

98%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le district TX-36 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le district TX-36 ?

93%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre du Texas 32 (TX-32) ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre du Texas 32 (TX-32) ?

85%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Jon Bonck (R) » à 93%, suivi de « Melissa McDonough (D) » à 4%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 93¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 93% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38 » a généré $28K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38 » est « Jon Bonck (R) » à 93%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 93% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Melissa McDonough (D) » à 4%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-38 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.