**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates. Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTX-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
TX-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$23,429 Vol.
$23,429 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Steve Toth (R)
93%
Shaun Finnie (D)
7%
$23,429 Vol.
$23,429 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Steve Toth (R)
$11,629 Vol.
93%
Shaun Finnie (D)
$11,800 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates.
Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$23,429Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates.
Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,429Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates. Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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