James Talarico holds an 84.5% implied probability of carrying Tarrant County in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election, far ahead of Ken Paxton at 6.5%, reflecting trader consensus on suburban shifts and candidate positioning. Recent statewide polling, including New York Times/Siena and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys through early September 2026, shows Talarico tied or leading Paxton overall, driven by strong support among independents, Hispanics, and non-college voters—demographics influential in Tarrant’s growing urban-suburban mix. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million, primary victory over Jasmine Crockett, and emphasis on affordability issues contrast with Paxton’s primary win over incumbent John Cornyn and ongoing outside spending challenges. A Democratic upset in the January 2026 special election for Texas Senate District 9 in northern Tarrant further signals localized movement, while recent county decisions to reduce polling sites introduce turnout uncertainty ahead of November 3. These factors position Talarico as the clear favorite to win the county under current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
James Talarico (D)
85%
Ken Paxton (R)
7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
James Talarico (D)
$4,685 Vol.
85%
Ken Paxton (R)
$199 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.James Talarico holds an 84.5% implied probability of carrying Tarrant County in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election, far ahead of Ken Paxton at 6.5%, reflecting trader consensus on suburban shifts and candidate positioning. Recent statewide polling, including New York Times/Siena and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys through early September 2026, shows Talarico tied or leading Paxton overall, driven by strong support among independents, Hispanics, and non-college voters—demographics influential in Tarrant’s growing urban-suburban mix. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million, primary victory over Jasmine Crockett, and emphasis on affordability issues contrast with Paxton’s primary win over incumbent John Cornyn and ongoing outside spending challenges. A Democratic upset in the January 2026 special election for Texas Senate District 9 in northern Tarrant further signals localized movement, while recent county decisions to reduce polling sites introduce turnout uncertainty ahead of November 3. These factors position Talarico as the clear favorite to win the county under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$4,884Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.James Talarico holds an 84.5% implied probability of carrying Tarrant County in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election, far ahead of Ken Paxton at 6.5%, reflecting trader consensus on suburban shifts and candidate positioning. Recent statewide polling, including New York Times/Siena and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys through early September 2026, shows Talarico tied or leading Paxton overall, driven by strong support among independents, Hispanics, and non-college voters—demographics influential in Tarrant’s growing urban-suburban mix. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million, primary victory over Jasmine Crockett, and emphasis on affordability issues contrast with Paxton’s primary win over incumbent John Cornyn and ongoing outside spending challenges. A Democratic upset in the January 2026 special election for Texas Senate District 9 in northern Tarrant further signals localized movement, while recent county decisions to reduce polling sites introduce turnout uncertainty ahead of November 3. These factors position Talarico as the clear favorite to win the county under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Volume
$4,884Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...James Talarico holds an 84.5% implied probability of carrying Tarrant County in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election, far ahead of Ken Paxton at 6.5%, reflecting trader consensus on suburban shifts and candidate positioning. Recent statewide polling, including New York Times/Siena and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys through early September 2026, shows Talarico tied or leading Paxton overall, driven by strong support among independents, Hispanics, and non-college voters—demographics influential in Tarrant’s growing urban-suburban mix. Talarico’s record fundraising exceeding $68 million, primary victory over Jasmine Crockett, and emphasis on affordability issues contrast with Paxton’s primary win over incumbent John Cornyn and ongoing outside spending challenges. A Democratic upset in the January 2026 special election for Texas Senate District 9 in northern Tarrant further signals localized movement, while recent county decisions to reduce polling sites introduce turnout uncertainty ahead of November 3. These factors position Talarico as the clear favorite to win the county under current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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