Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 25-30 % 34%
Démocrate 20-25 % 31%
Démocrate 15-20 % 15%
Démocrate 30-35 % 10.3%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate +40 %
1%
Démocrate 35-40 %
4%
Démocrate 30-35 %
10%
Démocrate 25-30 %
34%
Démocrate 20-25 %
31%
Démocrate 15-20 %
15%
Démocrate 10-15 %
7%
Démocrate 0-10 %
1%
Victoire républicaine
<1%
Démocrate 25-30 % 34%
Démocrate 20-25 % 31%
Démocrate 15-20 % 15%
Démocrate 30-35 % 10.3%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate +40 %
$688 Vol.
1%
Démocrate 35-40 %
$750 Vol.
4%
Démocrate 30-35 %
$937 Vol.
10%
Démocrate 25-30 %
$2,459 Vol.
34%
Démocrate 20-25 %
$1,621 Vol.
31%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$1,333 Vol.
15%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$1,030 Vol.
7%
Démocrate 0-10 %
$708 Vol.
1%
Victoire républicaine
$499 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$10,026Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,026Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 0%-3%?
18%
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre PA-06 de 2026 avec une avance de 20 à 25 % ?
36%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre PA-11 de 2026 avec une avance de 15 à 20 % ?
40%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes