Incumbent Jim Diodati holds the clearest lead in trader consensus for the October 26, 2026, Niagara Falls mayoral race, reflecting his record since 2010, prior council service, and consistent re-election margins such as 67 percent in 2022. Nominations closed August 21 with five certified candidates: Diodati, sitting councillor Lori Lococo, and challengers Kevin Martineau, Paul Manning, and Michael Lucid. Lococo’s late entry prompted some field adjustments amid vote-splitting concerns, while Diodati stated this would be his final term if re-elected. Recent campaign events include a rescheduled October 9 debate with added security after a candidate confrontation and advance polling starting late September. With no major polling shifts or late surges reported, market pricing aligns with the incumbent’s structural advantages in name recognition, platform priorities on housing, infrastructure, and hospital development, and limited competitive momentum among the field.