Ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets near NATO's eastern flank, combined with electronic warfare that diverts drones across borders, continue to drive incursions into alliance airspace. NATO air policing missions have intercepted multiple suspected Russian Geran-2 and similar UAVs in 2026, including Romanian F-16s in July, a Spanish F-18 over Romania in August, and Italian Eurofighters downing one in Lithuania on September 14-15 that entered from Belarus. These incidents reflect sustained spillover risks from intensified long-range attacks, prompting enhanced patrols, Article 4 consultations in prior cases, and allied commitments to defend member territory. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates aligns with the pattern of repeated violations and rapid NATO responses under existing rules of engagement.