Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, reflecting rapid gains from reasoning-focused training and extended chain-of-thought methods that have lifted frontier scores from single digits at the benchmark’s early-2025 launch. Meta’s Muse Spark series follows closely near 49–62% depending on evaluation protocol, while recent OpenAI GPT-5 and GPT-6 variants trail slightly behind. The 2,500-question expert-curated set, covering graduate-level math, physics, biology, and humanities, continues to show substantial headroom with low saturation risk. Key catalysts through December include further Claude iterations, potential Meta and Google releases, and any shifts to tool-augmented or HLE-Rolling evaluations that could alter recorded maxima. Trader consensus on year-end thresholds hinges on whether these incremental reasoning advances sustain their current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$73,298 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
60% ou plus
44%
65 %+
29%
70 %+
14%
75 %+
13%
80 %+
7%
90 %+
5%
$73,298 Vol.
60% ou plus
$42,329 Vol.
44%
65 %+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70 %+
$6,485 Vol.
14%
75 %+
$3,674 Vol.
13%
80 %+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90 %+
$2,465 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, reflecting rapid gains from reasoning-focused training and extended chain-of-thought methods that have lifted frontier scores from single digits at the benchmark’s early-2025 launch. Meta’s Muse Spark series follows closely near 49–62% depending on evaluation protocol, while recent OpenAI GPT-5 and GPT-6 variants trail slightly behind. The 2,500-question expert-curated set, covering graduate-level math, physics, biology, and humanities, continues to show substantial headroom with low saturation risk. Key catalysts through December include further Claude iterations, potential Meta and Google releases, and any shifts to tool-augmented or HLE-Rolling evaluations that could alter recorded maxima. Trader consensus on year-end thresholds hinges on whether these incremental reasoning advances sustain their current pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$73,298Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, reflecting rapid gains from reasoning-focused training and extended chain-of-thought methods that have lifted frontier scores from single digits at the benchmark’s early-2025 launch. Meta’s Muse Spark series follows closely near 49–62% depending on evaluation protocol, while recent OpenAI GPT-5 and GPT-6 variants trail slightly behind. The 2,500-question expert-curated set, covering graduate-level math, physics, biology, and humanities, continues to show substantial headroom with low saturation risk. Key catalysts through December include further Claude iterations, potential Meta and Google releases, and any shifts to tool-augmented or HLE-Rolling evaluations that could alter recorded maxima. Trader consensus on year-end thresholds hinges on whether these incremental reasoning advances sustain their current pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$73,298Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, reflecting rapid gains from reasoning-focused training and extended chain-of-thought methods that have lifted frontier scores from single digits at the benchmark’s early-2025 launch. Meta’s Muse Spark series follows closely near 49–62% depending on evaluation protocol, while recent OpenAI GPT-5 and GPT-6 variants trail slightly behind. The 2,500-question expert-curated set, covering graduate-level math, physics, biology, and humanities, continues to show substantial headroom with low saturation risk. Key catalysts through December include further Claude iterations, potential Meta and Google releases, and any shifts to tool-augmented or HLE-Rolling evaluations that could alter recorded maxima. Trader consensus on year-end thresholds hinges on whether these incremental reasoning advances sustain their current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle OpenAI lors du Dernier Examen de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
77%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Meta à l’ultime examen de l’humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
28%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Anthropic Claude à l'examen final de l'humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
92%
Oui
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