Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the main catalyst shaping trader views on a Grok 5 release. He positioned Grok 4.7 near Opus 5.0 parity, described the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8—trained on a new C++ stack—as finishing training that week before reinforcement learning, and labeled Grok 5 the version expected to deliver AGI-level capabilities or “maybe better than anything.” Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after Grok 4.5 and 4.6 shipped in July and August, leaving 4.7–4.9 as near-term hurdles. With no official Grok 5 date or benchmarks confirmed, market sentiment reflects uncertainty over training scale, multimodal fixes, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL phase and any 4.9 updates for signals on whether late-2026 delivery remains plausible.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$14,132 Vol.
30 nov. 2026
31 octobre
8%
30 novembre
16%
31 décembre
58%
$14,132 Vol.
31 octobre
$3,320 Vol.
8%
30 novembre
$1,260 Vol.
16%
31 décembre
$4,474 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the main catalyst shaping trader views on a Grok 5 release. He positioned Grok 4.7 near Opus 5.0 parity, described the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8—trained on a new C++ stack—as finishing training that week before reinforcement learning, and labeled Grok 5 the version expected to deliver AGI-level capabilities or “maybe better than anything.” Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after Grok 4.5 and 4.6 shipped in July and August, leaving 4.7–4.9 as near-term hurdles. With no official Grok 5 date or benchmarks confirmed, market sentiment reflects uncertainty over training scale, multimodal fixes, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL phase and any 4.9 updates for signals on whether late-2026 delivery remains plausible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$14,132Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the main catalyst shaping trader views on a Grok 5 release. He positioned Grok 4.7 near Opus 5.0 parity, described the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8—trained on a new C++ stack—as finishing training that week before reinforcement learning, and labeled Grok 5 the version expected to deliver AGI-level capabilities or “maybe better than anything.” Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after Grok 4.5 and 4.6 shipped in July and August, leaving 4.7–4.9 as near-term hurdles. With no official Grok 5 date or benchmarks confirmed, market sentiment reflects uncertainty over training scale, multimodal fixes, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL phase and any 4.9 updates for signals on whether late-2026 delivery remains plausible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,132Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the main catalyst shaping trader views on a Grok 5 release. He positioned Grok 4.7 near Opus 5.0 parity, described the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8—trained on a new C++ stack—as finishing training that week before reinforcement learning, and labeled Grok 5 the version expected to deliver AGI-level capabilities or “maybe better than anything.” Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after Grok 4.5 and 4.6 shipped in July and August, leaving 4.7–4.9 as near-term hurdles. With no official Grok 5 date or benchmarks confirmed, market sentiment reflects uncertainty over training scale, multimodal fixes, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL phase and any 4.9 updates for signals on whether late-2026 delivery remains plausible.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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