Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Solid economic expansion, stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment, and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting have reinforced trader expectations that the September 15–16 decision will deviate from another pause. With the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a high probability of a September hike, the elevated 78.5% market-implied odds on “Other” reflect this path-dependent hawkish tilt, while the modest 20% on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the narrow window for continued holds absent fresh disinflation data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,870 Vol.
$864,870 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
79%
Other 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,870 Vol.
$864,870 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,799 Vol.
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,261 Vol.
<1%
Other
$373,968 Vol.
79%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Solid economic expansion, stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment, and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting have reinforced trader expectations that the September 15–16 decision will deviate from another pause. With the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a high probability of a September hike, the elevated 78.5% market-implied odds on “Other” reflect this path-dependent hawkish tilt, while the modest 20% on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the narrow window for continued holds absent fresh disinflation data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$864,870Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Solid economic expansion, stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment, and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting have reinforced trader expectations that the September 15–16 decision will deviate from another pause. With the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a high probability of a September hike, the elevated 78.5% market-implied odds on “Other” reflect this path-dependent hawkish tilt, while the modest 20% on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the narrow window for continued holds absent fresh disinflation data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$864,870Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Solid economic expansion, stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment, and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting have reinforced trader expectations that the September 15–16 decision will deviate from another pause. With the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a high probability of a September hike, the elevated 78.5% market-implied odds on “Other” reflect this path-dependent hawkish tilt, while the modest 20% on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the narrow window for continued holds absent fresh disinflation data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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