Eurozone inflation has surged above 3% in August 2026, driven primarily by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit rate toward 2.5% or higher with near-certainty at its September 10 meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader expectations that rates will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027, supported by resilient growth, limited second-round effects so far, and forward curves pricing a terminal rate around 2.75%. This environment makes any rate cut in 2026 highly improbable, consistent with the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$32,434 Vol.
$32,434 Vol.
Oui
$32,434 Vol.
$32,434 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation has surged above 3% in August 2026, driven primarily by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit rate toward 2.5% or higher with near-certainty at its September 10 meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader expectations that rates will remain elevated through year-end and into 2027, supported by resilient growth, limited second-round effects so far, and forward curves pricing a terminal rate around 2.75%. This environment makes any rate cut in 2026 highly improbable, consistent with the 94.5% market-implied probability for “No.” A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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