The early procedural posture of federal lawsuits challenging the Truth API paid-access service—filed in August in the Southern District of New York and September in the District of Columbia—drives the strong trader consensus against a court-ordered block by October 31. Both cases remain at the initial pleading stage with no hearings, temporary restraining orders, or preliminary injunction motions resolved, and standard briefing and argument timelines in district court make expedited relief before the deadline unlikely. The service launched in early August and continues operating with multiple subscribers, while defendants have contested the First Amendment claims. Traders price the 91% implied probability for "No" on these institutional realities and the absence of any emergency judicial action in the roughly six weeks since the first complaint.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes tribunaux bloquent le plan d'accès anticipé de 100 000 $ de Truth Social de Trump d'ici le 31 octobre ?
Les tribunaux bloquent le plan d'accès anticipé de 100 000 $ de Truth Social de Trump d'ici le 31 octobre ?
Oui
9% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Oui
9% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The early procedural posture of federal lawsuits challenging the Truth API paid-access service—filed in August in the Southern District of New York and September in the District of Columbia—drives the strong trader consensus against a court-ordered block by October 31. Both cases remain at the initial pleading stage with no hearings, temporary restraining orders, or preliminary injunction motions resolved, and standard briefing and argument timelines in district court make expedited relief before the deadline unlikely. The service launched in early August and continues operating with multiple subscribers, while defendants have contested the First Amendment claims. Traders price the 91% implied probability for "No" on these institutional realities and the absence of any emergency judicial action in the roughly six weeks since the first complaint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 25, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$1,615Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 6:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The early procedural posture of federal lawsuits challenging the Truth API paid-access service—filed in August in the Southern District of New York and September in the District of Columbia—drives the strong trader consensus against a court-ordered block by October 31. Both cases remain at the initial pleading stage with no hearings, temporary restraining orders, or preliminary injunction motions resolved, and standard briefing and argument timelines in district court make expedited relief before the deadline unlikely. The service launched in early August and continues operating with multiple subscribers, while defendants have contested the First Amendment claims. Traders price the 91% implied probability for "No" on these institutional realities and the absence of any emergency judicial action in the roughly six weeks since the first complaint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage.
A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration.
The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,615Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 6:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The early procedural posture of federal lawsuits challenging the Truth API paid-access service—filed in August in the Southern District of New York and September in the District of Columbia—drives the strong trader consensus against a court-ordered block by October 31. Both cases remain at the initial pleading stage with no hearings, temporary restraining orders, or preliminary injunction motions resolved, and standard briefing and argument timelines in district court make expedited relief before the deadline unlikely. The service launched in early August and continues operating with multiple subscribers, while defendants have contested the First Amendment claims. Traders price the 91% implied probability for "No" on these institutional realities and the absence of any emergency judicial action in the roughly six weeks since the first complaint.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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