Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race primarily because Proposition 50 redrew the San Diego-Riverside district to create a slight Democratic registration edge and a D+2 partisan lean, converting a former Republican stronghold into a lean-Democratic open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa retired. In the June top-two primary, von Wilpert advanced alongside Republican Jim Desmond, who received Trump’s endorsement. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond’s 42%, within the margin of error, though Democratic national committees have prioritized her candidacy through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and upcoming appearances by Kamala Harris. Trader consensus prices these structural and resource advantages as dominant ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,439 Vol.
$32,439 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Marni von Wilpert (D)
89%
Jim Desmond (R)
12%
$32,439 Vol.
$32,439 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Marni von Wilpert (D)
$17,221 Vol.
89%
Jim Desmond (R)
$15,218 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race primarily because Proposition 50 redrew the San Diego-Riverside district to create a slight Democratic registration edge and a D+2 partisan lean, converting a former Republican stronghold into a lean-Democratic open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa retired. In the June top-two primary, von Wilpert advanced alongside Republican Jim Desmond, who received Trump’s endorsement. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond’s 42%, within the margin of error, though Democratic national committees have prioritized her candidacy through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and upcoming appearances by Kamala Harris. Trader consensus prices these structural and resource advantages as dominant ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,439Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race primarily because Proposition 50 redrew the San Diego-Riverside district to create a slight Democratic registration edge and a D+2 partisan lean, converting a former Republican stronghold into a lean-Democratic open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa retired. In the June top-two primary, von Wilpert advanced alongside Republican Jim Desmond, who received Trump’s endorsement. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond’s 42%, within the margin of error, though Democratic national committees have prioritized her candidacy through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and upcoming appearances by Kamala Harris. Trader consensus prices these structural and resource advantages as dominant ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,439Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Marni von Wilpert holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 House race primarily because Proposition 50 redrew the San Diego-Riverside district to create a slight Democratic registration edge and a D+2 partisan lean, converting a former Republican stronghold into a lean-Democratic open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa retired. In the June top-two primary, von Wilpert advanced alongside Republican Jim Desmond, who received Trump’s endorsement. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed von Wilpert narrowly ahead at 45% to Desmond’s 42%, within the margin of error, though Democratic national committees have prioritized her candidacy through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and upcoming appearances by Kamala Harris. Trader consensus prices these structural and resource advantages as dominant ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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