Dave Min secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.5% of the vote, advancing against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux who received 25%. Multiple forecasters rate the Orange County-based district as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election, consistent with Min’s 2024 victory margin and the seat’s partisan baseline. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising lead, established name recognition from his prior state senate service, and focus on local priorities such as housing supply have reinforced trader expectations. Le Roux, a business executive, consolidated Republican support in the primary but confronts structural headwinds in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Dave Min (D)
95%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Dave Min (D)
$3,261 Vol.
95%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Dave Min secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.5% of the vote, advancing against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux who received 25%. Multiple forecasters rate the Orange County-based district as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election, consistent with Min’s 2024 victory margin and the seat’s partisan baseline. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising lead, established name recognition from his prior state senate service, and focus on local priorities such as housing supply have reinforced trader expectations. Le Roux, a business executive, consolidated Republican support in the primary but confronts structural headwinds in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Dave Min secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.5% of the vote, advancing against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux who received 25%. Multiple forecasters rate the Orange County-based district as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election, consistent with Min’s 2024 victory margin and the seat’s partisan baseline. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising lead, established name recognition from his prior state senate service, and focus on local priorities such as housing supply have reinforced trader expectations. Le Roux, a business executive, consolidated Republican support in the primary but confronts structural headwinds in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Dave Min secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.5% of the vote, advancing against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux who received 25%. Multiple forecasters rate the Orange County-based district as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election, consistent with Min’s 2024 victory margin and the seat’s partisan baseline. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising lead, established name recognition from his prior state senate service, and focus on local priorities such as housing supply have reinforced trader expectations. Le Roux, a business executive, consolidated Republican support in the primary but confronts structural headwinds in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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