Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent and former San Jose mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76% of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, far ahead of Republican Peter Soule. Independent analyses from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic based on voter registration patterns, prior election margins, and the district's Silicon Valley composition. Soule's limited fundraising and primary showing reflect weak Republican infrastructure and turnout potential in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. Unlikely but plausible variables that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, candidate health event, or broad national realignment favoring Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
$107,115 Vol.
$107,115 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,115 Vol.
$107,115 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$52,942 Vol.
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,173 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent and former San Jose mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76% of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, far ahead of Republican Peter Soule. Independent analyses from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic based on voter registration patterns, prior election margins, and the district's Silicon Valley composition. Soule's limited fundraising and primary showing reflect weak Republican infrastructure and turnout potential in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. Unlikely but plausible variables that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, candidate health event, or broad national realignment favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$107,115Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent and former San Jose mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76% of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, far ahead of Republican Peter Soule. Independent analyses from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic based on voter registration patterns, prior election margins, and the district's Silicon Valley composition. Soule's limited fundraising and primary showing reflect weak Republican infrastructure and turnout potential in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. Unlikely but plausible variables that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, candidate health event, or broad national realignment favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,115Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent and former San Jose mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76% of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, far ahead of Republican Peter Soule. Independent analyses from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic based on voter registration patterns, prior election margins, and the district's Silicon Valley composition. Soule's limited fundraising and primary showing reflect weak Republican infrastructure and turnout potential in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. Unlikely but plausible variables that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, candidate health event, or broad national realignment favoring Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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