Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District, an R+11 seat covering northwestern counties that has consistently supported Republican presidential candidates by wide margins. Kelly’s long tenure, senior role on the House Ways and Means Committee, and substantial fundraising edge—over $1 million in cash on hand versus roughly $66,000 for Democrat Justin Wagner—have solidified trader consensus around his re-election. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May primaries, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows few signs of such shifts before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPA-16 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
PA-16 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$40,253 Vol.
$40,253 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
91%
Justin Wagner (D)
8%
$40,253 Vol.
$40,253 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
$23,886 Vol.
91%
Justin Wagner (D)
$16,367 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District, an R+11 seat covering northwestern counties that has consistently supported Republican presidential candidates by wide margins. Kelly’s long tenure, senior role on the House Ways and Means Committee, and substantial fundraising edge—over $1 million in cash on hand versus roughly $66,000 for Democrat Justin Wagner—have solidified trader consensus around his re-election. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May primaries, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows few signs of such shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$40,253Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District, an R+11 seat covering northwestern counties that has consistently supported Republican presidential candidates by wide margins. Kelly’s long tenure, senior role on the House Ways and Means Committee, and substantial fundraising edge—over $1 million in cash on hand versus roughly $66,000 for Democrat Justin Wagner—have solidified trader consensus around his re-election. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May primaries, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows few signs of such shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,253Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District, an R+11 seat covering northwestern counties that has consistently supported Republican presidential candidates by wide margins. Kelly’s long tenure, senior role on the House Ways and Means Committee, and substantial fundraising edge—over $1 million in cash on hand versus roughly $66,000 for Democrat Justin Wagner—have solidified trader consensus around his re-election. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May primaries, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows few signs of such shifts before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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