Diplomatic tensions between Iran and multiple countries continue to drive expulsion risks, centered on accusations of interference, espionage, proxy activities, and responses to strikes or statements. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early September 2026 over Tehran's criticisms and the unresolved AMIA case, while France expelled two diplomats in August following reciprocal measures tied to detentions in Tehran. Kuwait ordered two out in June after an airport attack, and the U.S. conducted quiet expulsions from its UN mission in late 2025. Traders weigh these patterns against the absence of immediate new triggers, with future incidents in active conflicts or bilateral disputes likely to influence odds through official persona non grata declarations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn autre diplomate iranien expulsé par... ?
Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé par... ?
$30,982 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
13%
31 octobre
24%
$30,982 Vol.
30 septembre
$1,035 Vol.
13%
31 octobre
$1,630 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Iran and multiple countries continue to drive expulsion risks, centered on accusations of interference, espionage, proxy activities, and responses to strikes or statements. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early September 2026 over Tehran's criticisms and the unresolved AMIA case, while France expelled two diplomats in August following reciprocal measures tied to detentions in Tehran. Kuwait ordered two out in June after an airport attack, and the U.S. conducted quiet expulsions from its UN mission in late 2025. Traders weigh these patterns against the absence of immediate new triggers, with future incidents in active conflicts or bilateral disputes likely to influence odds through official persona non grata declarations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$30,982Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Iran and multiple countries continue to drive expulsion risks, centered on accusations of interference, espionage, proxy activities, and responses to strikes or statements. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early September 2026 over Tehran's criticisms and the unresolved AMIA case, while France expelled two diplomats in August following reciprocal measures tied to detentions in Tehran. Kuwait ordered two out in June after an airport attack, and the U.S. conducted quiet expulsions from its UN mission in late 2025. Traders weigh these patterns against the absence of immediate new triggers, with future incidents in active conflicts or bilateral disputes likely to influence odds through official persona non grata declarations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,982Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions between Iran and multiple countries continue to drive expulsion risks, centered on accusations of interference, espionage, proxy activities, and responses to strikes or statements. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early September 2026 over Tehran's criticisms and the unresolved AMIA case, while France expelled two diplomats in August following reciprocal measures tied to detentions in Tehran. Kuwait ordered two out in June after an airport attack, and the U.S. conducted quiet expulsions from its UN mission in late 2025. Traders weigh these patterns against the absence of immediate new triggers, with future incidents in active conflicts or bilateral disputes likely to influence odds through official persona non grata declarations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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