The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, and the updated dot plot—showing 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional increase by year-end—anchor the 81% implied probability for another rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, remains well above the 2% target, fueled by energy-price surges from geopolitical tensions, tariff effects, and resilient domestic demand. Policymakers also raised their 2026 inflation and growth forecasts while lifting the median funds-rate projection to 4.1%. With the next FOMC meetings in October and December still ahead, traders see these data and communications as supporting further tightening before year-end, though any rapid cooling in prices could alter the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
81% chance
NOUVEAU
$18,528 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$18,528 Vol.
8 déc. 2026
Oui
81% chance
NOUVEAU
$18,528 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$18,528 Vol.
8 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, and the updated dot plot—showing 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional increase by year-end—anchor the 81% implied probability for another rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, remains well above the 2% target, fueled by energy-price surges from geopolitical tensions, tariff effects, and resilient domestic demand. Policymakers also raised their 2026 inflation and growth forecasts while lifting the median funds-rate projection to 4.1%. With the next FOMC meetings in October and December still ahead, traders see these data and communications as supporting further tightening before year-end, though any rapid cooling in prices could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$18,528Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, and the updated dot plot—showing 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional increase by year-end—anchor the 81% implied probability for another rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, remains well above the 2% target, fueled by energy-price surges from geopolitical tensions, tariff effects, and resilient domestic demand. Policymakers also raised their 2026 inflation and growth forecasts while lifting the median funds-rate projection to 4.1%. With the next FOMC meetings in October and December still ahead, traders see these data and communications as supporting further tightening before year-end, though any rapid cooling in prices could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,548Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, and the updated dot plot—showing 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional increase by year-end—anchor the 81% implied probability for another rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, remains well above the 2% target, fueled by energy-price surges from geopolitical tensions, tariff effects, and resilient domestic demand. Policymakers also raised their 2026 inflation and growth forecasts while lifting the median funds-rate projection to 4.1%. With the next FOMC meetings in October and December still ahead, traders see these data and communications as supporting further tightening before year-end, though any rapid cooling in prices could alter the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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