Alabama's reliably Republican electorate and the open Senate seat left by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid underpin trader pricing, with Barry Moore positioned as the clear nominee after his June runoff victory over Jared Hudson. Polling since the primaries has shown Moore holding double-digit leads over Democrat Everett Wess, consistent with the state's recent presidential margins and limited Democratic fundraising. The spread of Republican margin outcomes between 5 and 30 points reflects uncertainty over turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the near-even split on top-line Person A versus Other outcomes captures variance in exact victory size rather than the overall result. No major campaign events or external shocks have altered the baseline since the summer, leaving the race on track for a comfortable Republican hold absent unforeseen developments before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 20-25 % 17.1%
Républicain 5-10 % 17%
Républicain 15-20 % 16%
Républicain 25-30 % 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 35 %+
3%
Républicain 30-35 %
5%
Républicain 25-30 %
12%
Républicain 20-25 %
17%
Républicain 15-20 %
16%
Républicain 10-15 %
8%
Républicain 5-10 %
17%
Républicain 0-5 %
4%
Victoire du démocrate
1%
Républicain 20-25 % 17.1%
Républicain 5-10 % 17%
Républicain 15-20 % 16%
Républicain 25-30 % 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 35 %+
$174 Vol.
3%
Républicain 30-35 %
$160 Vol.
5%
Républicain 25-30 %
$956 Vol.
12%
Républicain 20-25 %
$225 Vol.
17%
Républicain 15-20 %
$196 Vol.
16%
Républicain 10-15 %
$447 Vol.
8%
Républicain 5-10 %
$574 Vol.
17%
Républicain 0-5 %
$171 Vol.
4%
Victoire du démocrate
$191 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Alabama Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alabama's reliably Republican electorate and the open Senate seat left by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid underpin trader pricing, with Barry Moore positioned as the clear nominee after his June runoff victory over Jared Hudson. Polling since the primaries has shown Moore holding double-digit leads over Democrat Everett Wess, consistent with the state's recent presidential margins and limited Democratic fundraising. The spread of Republican margin outcomes between 5 and 30 points reflects uncertainty over turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the near-even split on top-line Person A versus Other outcomes captures variance in exact victory size rather than the overall result. No major campaign events or external shocks have altered the baseline since the summer, leaving the race on track for a comfortable Republican hold absent unforeseen developments before November.
The 2026 Alabama Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
Volume
$3,094Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 1:46 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Alabama Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alabama's reliably Republican electorate and the open Senate seat left by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid underpin trader pricing, with Barry Moore positioned as the clear nominee after his June runoff victory over Jared Hudson. Polling since the primaries has shown Moore holding double-digit leads over Democrat Everett Wess, consistent with the state's recent presidential margins and limited Democratic fundraising. The spread of Republican margin outcomes between 5 and 30 points reflects uncertainty over turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the near-even split on top-line Person A versus Other outcomes captures variance in exact victory size rather than the overall result. No major campaign events or external shocks have altered the baseline since the summer, leaving the race on track for a comfortable Republican hold absent unforeseen developments before November.
The 2026 Alabama Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,094Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 1:46 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Alabama's reliably Republican electorate and the open Senate seat left by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid underpin trader pricing, with Barry Moore positioned as the clear nominee after his June runoff victory over Jared Hudson. Polling since the primaries has shown Moore holding double-digit leads over Democrat Everett Wess, consistent with the state's recent presidential margins and limited Democratic fundraising. The spread of Republican margin outcomes between 5 and 30 points reflects uncertainty over turnout and any late-cycle shifts, while the near-even split on top-line Person A versus Other outcomes captures variance in exact victory size rather than the overall result. No major campaign events or external shocks have altered the baseline since the summer, leaving the race on track for a comfortable Republican hold absent unforeseen developments before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 30% or more?
17%
Le candidat du Parti républicain gagnera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale de l'Iowa de 2026 avec une avance de 3% à 6% ?
25%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 30%-35%?
22%
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