Meta's recent September 2026 releases of the Muse Spark 1.3 large language model, Muse Glimmer open-weight variant, and the Muse personal AI agent have driven strong trader consensus around its #2 positioning. These updates emphasize agentic workflows, coding capabilities, multimodal features, and accessible local deployment, strengthening Meta's competitive stance against frontier labs through demonstrated product momentum and open ecosystem growth. With resolution days away, the 91% market-implied odds reflect this activity amid slower public progress from peers. A surprise high-performing model drop or benchmark surge from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google could still shift outcomes before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMeta 91%
Google 5.4%
Anthropic 3.1%
OpenAI 2.9%
$85,556 Vol.
$85,556 Vol.

Meta
91%

5%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Meta 91%
Google 5.4%
Anthropic 3.1%
OpenAI 2.9%
$85,556 Vol.
$85,556 Vol.

Meta
91%

5%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent September 2026 releases of the Muse Spark 1.3 large language model, Muse Glimmer open-weight variant, and the Muse personal AI agent have driven strong trader consensus around its #2 positioning. These updates emphasize agentic workflows, coding capabilities, multimodal features, and accessible local deployment, strengthening Meta's competitive stance against frontier labs through demonstrated product momentum and open ecosystem growth. With resolution days away, the 91% market-implied odds reflect this activity amid slower public progress from peers. A surprise high-performing model drop or benchmark surge from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google could still shift outcomes before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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