The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on conviction reflects the Philippine Senate's divided composition and procedural uncertainties in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. A leadership shift in June 2026 replaced a Duterte ally with a Marcos-aligned Senate president, easing some procedural hurdles for prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential fund misuse, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Conviction still requires 16 of 24 votes on any article, with active debate over whether unavailable senators factor into the threshold and scheduled Supreme Court input on related petitions. Recent testimony on financial records and acknowledgment receipts has sustained momentum for the House prosecution, while Duterte's defense challenges the process as politically motivated. Upcoming full-day hearings and potential cross-aisle shifts could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026, resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
54% chance
$12,551 Vol.
$12,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
54% chance
$12,551 Vol.
$12,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on conviction reflects the Philippine Senate's divided composition and procedural uncertainties in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. A leadership shift in June 2026 replaced a Duterte ally with a Marcos-aligned Senate president, easing some procedural hurdles for prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential fund misuse, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Conviction still requires 16 of 24 votes on any article, with active debate over whether unavailable senators factor into the threshold and scheduled Supreme Court input on related petitions. Recent testimony on financial records and acknowledgment receipts has sustained momentum for the House prosecution, while Duterte's defense challenges the process as politically motivated. Upcoming full-day hearings and potential cross-aisle shifts could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026, resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on conviction reflects the Philippine Senate's divided composition and procedural uncertainties in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. A leadership shift in June 2026 replaced a Duterte ally with a Marcos-aligned Senate president, easing some procedural hurdles for prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential fund misuse, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Conviction still requires 16 of 24 votes on any article, with active debate over whether unavailable senators factor into the threshold and scheduled Supreme Court input on related petitions. Recent testimony on financial records and acknowledgment receipts has sustained momentum for the House prosecution, while Duterte's defense challenges the process as politically motivated. Upcoming full-day hearings and potential cross-aisle shifts could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026, resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on conviction reflects the Philippine Senate's divided composition and procedural uncertainties in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. A leadership shift in June 2026 replaced a Duterte ally with a Marcos-aligned Senate president, easing some procedural hurdles for prosecutors presenting evidence on confidential fund misuse, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Conviction still requires 16 of 24 votes on any article, with active debate over whether unavailable senators factor into the threshold and scheduled Supreme Court input on related petitions. Recent testimony on financial records and acknowledgment receipts has sustained momentum for the House prosecution, while Duterte's defense challenges the process as politically motivated. Upcoming full-day hearings and potential cross-aisle shifts could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026, resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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