The near-certain trader consensus on the Iranian regime's survival through September 30 stems from the brief nine-day window and the Islamic Republic's institutional continuity despite months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership transitions following Ali Khamenei's death, and economic strain. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue coordinating via the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC structures while issuing formal conditions through mediators to end hostilities, including asset releases and an end to naval blockades, signaling operational stability rather than imminent fracture. Fragmented opposition, sustained security force cohesion, and the absence of a coordinated trigger for rapid collapse reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen elite split or sudden escalation producing widespread defections, though such developments have not materialized in recent verified military or diplomatic reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,418,632 Vol.
$2,418,632 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
$2,418,632 Vol.
$2,418,632 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus on the Iranian regime's survival through September 30 stems from the brief nine-day window and the Islamic Republic's institutional continuity despite months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership transitions following Ali Khamenei's death, and economic strain. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue coordinating via the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC structures while issuing formal conditions through mediators to end hostilities, including asset releases and an end to naval blockades, signaling operational stability rather than imminent fracture. Fragmented opposition, sustained security force cohesion, and the absence of a coordinated trigger for rapid collapse reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen elite split or sudden escalation producing widespread defections, though such developments have not materialized in recent verified military or diplomatic reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,418,632End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus on the Iranian regime's survival through September 30 stems from the brief nine-day window and the Islamic Republic's institutional continuity despite months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership transitions following Ali Khamenei's death, and economic strain. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue coordinating via the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC structures while issuing formal conditions through mediators to end hostilities, including asset releases and an end to naval blockades, signaling operational stability rather than imminent fracture. Fragmented opposition, sustained security force cohesion, and the absence of a coordinated trigger for rapid collapse reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen elite split or sudden escalation producing widespread defections, though such developments have not materialized in recent verified military or diplomatic reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,418,632End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on the Iranian regime's survival through September 30 stems from the brief nine-day window and the Islamic Republic's institutional continuity despite months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership transitions following Ali Khamenei's death, and economic strain. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue coordinating via the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC structures while issuing formal conditions through mediators to end hostilities, including asset releases and an end to naval blockades, signaling operational stability rather than imminent fracture. Fragmented opposition, sustained security force cohesion, and the absence of a coordinated trigger for rapid collapse reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen elite split or sudden escalation producing widespread defections, though such developments have not materialized in recent verified military or diplomatic reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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