**Tesla’s Cybercab remains in early, low-volume production focused on its own robotaxi fleet rather than retail sales, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus at 86%.** Production of the two-seat, steering-wheel-free robotaxi began with the first unit in February 2026 and moved to continuous output at Giga Texas in April, using the new “unboxed” manufacturing process and 4680 cells. Capacity claims reached over 125,000 units annually at the site, but output has stayed limited—only about 45 units registered in Texas by September, primarily supporting paid Austin robotaxi rides that launched in early September. Tesla has prioritized building its own fleet and expanding unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD v15) testing over direct consumer sales. No official base MSRP has been published, and the longstanding sub-$30,000 target (sometimes referenced near $25,000) stays aspirational. Musk confirmed in February 2026 that deliveries below $30k were planned before 2027, yet recent activity centers on fleet interest forms and Tesla-operated ride-hailing rather than retail configurators or customer deliveries. Regulatory requirements for vehicles without manual controls, plus battery supply constraints, further slow any shift to individual sales. With only a few months left in 2026 and no confirmed retail transactions, traders view a qualifying sale to a retail customer by year-end as unlikely, favoring the 2027 timeline instead. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software progress, additional regulatory clearances, and any shift from fleet to consumer availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Tesla’s Cybercab remains in early, low-volume production focused on its own robotaxi fleet rather than retail sales, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus at 86%.**
Production of the two-seat, steering-wheel-free robotaxi began with the first unit in February 2026 and moved to continuous output at Giga Texas in April, using the new “unboxed” manufacturing process and 4680 cells. Capacity claims reached over 125,000 units annually at the site, but output has stayed limited—only about 45 units registered in Texas by September, primarily supporting paid Austin robotaxi rides that launched in early September. Tesla has prioritized building its own fleet and expanding unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD v15) testing over direct consumer sales.
No official base MSRP has been published, and the longstanding sub-$30,000 target (sometimes referenced near $25,000) stays aspirational. Musk confirmed in February 2026 that deliveries below $30k were planned before 2027, yet recent activity centers on fleet interest forms and Tesla-operated ride-hailing rather than retail configurators or customer deliveries. Regulatory requirements for vehicles without manual controls, plus battery supply constraints, further slow any shift to individual sales.
With only a few months left in 2026 and no confirmed retail transactions, traders view a qualifying sale to a retail customer by year-end as unlikely, favoring the 2027 timeline instead. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software progress, additional regulatory clearances, and any shift from fleet to consumer availability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$56,432End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Tesla’s Cybercab remains in early, low-volume production focused on its own robotaxi fleet rather than retail sales, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus at 86%.**
Production of the two-seat, steering-wheel-free robotaxi began with the first unit in February 2026 and moved to continuous output at Giga Texas in April, using the new “unboxed” manufacturing process and 4680 cells. Capacity claims reached over 125,000 units annually at the site, but output has stayed limited—only about 45 units registered in Texas by September, primarily supporting paid Austin robotaxi rides that launched in early September. Tesla has prioritized building its own fleet and expanding unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD v15) testing over direct consumer sales.
No official base MSRP has been published, and the longstanding sub-$30,000 target (sometimes referenced near $25,000) stays aspirational. Musk confirmed in February 2026 that deliveries below $30k were planned before 2027, yet recent activity centers on fleet interest forms and Tesla-operated ride-hailing rather than retail configurators or customer deliveries. Regulatory requirements for vehicles without manual controls, plus battery supply constraints, further slow any shift to individual sales.
With only a few months left in 2026 and no confirmed retail transactions, traders view a qualifying sale to a retail customer by year-end as unlikely, favoring the 2027 timeline instead. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software progress, additional regulatory clearances, and any shift from fleet to consumer availability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,432End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Tesla’s Cybercab remains in early, low-volume production focused on its own robotaxi fleet rather than retail sales, supporting the market’s strong “No” consensus at 86%.** Production of the two-seat, steering-wheel-free robotaxi began with the first unit in February 2026 and moved to continuous output at Giga Texas in April, using the new “unboxed” manufacturing process and 4680 cells. Capacity claims reached over 125,000 units annually at the site, but output has stayed limited—only about 45 units registered in Texas by September, primarily supporting paid Austin robotaxi rides that launched in early September. Tesla has prioritized building its own fleet and expanding unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD v15) testing over direct consumer sales. No official base MSRP has been published, and the longstanding sub-$30,000 target (sometimes referenced near $25,000) stays aspirational. Musk confirmed in February 2026 that deliveries below $30k were planned before 2027, yet recent activity centers on fleet interest forms and Tesla-operated ride-hailing rather than retail configurators or customer deliveries. Regulatory requirements for vehicles without manual controls, plus battery supply constraints, further slow any shift to individual sales. With only a few months left in 2026 and no confirmed retail transactions, traders view a qualifying sale to a retail customer by year-end as unlikely, favoring the 2027 timeline instead. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software progress, additional regulatory clearances, and any shift from fleet to consumer availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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