Tesla’s Cybercab production began in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas with an initial focus on building a proprietary robotaxi fleet rather than enabling retail sales. Only dozens of units have entered limited unsupervised service in Austin as of mid-September, with output still far below the 125,000-unit annual capacity target and no volume ramp achieved. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target and pre-2027 consumer deliveries, yet Tesla has not published an official MSRP, opened a configurator, or completed any qualifying retail transactions. Regulatory review of the steering-wheel-free design, the need for additional FSD data specific to the new chassis, and the company’s revised 2027 timeline for broader availability keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 retail sale at or below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production began in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas with an initial focus on building a proprietary robotaxi fleet rather than enabling retail sales. Only dozens of units have entered limited unsupervised service in Austin as of mid-September, with output still far below the 125,000-unit annual capacity target and no volume ramp achieved. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target and pre-2027 consumer deliveries, yet Tesla has not published an official MSRP, opened a configurator, or completed any qualifying retail transactions. Regulatory review of the steering-wheel-free design, the need for additional FSD data specific to the new chassis, and the company’s revised 2027 timeline for broader availability keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 retail sale at or below the threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$56,432End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production began in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas with an initial focus on building a proprietary robotaxi fleet rather than enabling retail sales. Only dozens of units have entered limited unsupervised service in Austin as of mid-September, with output still far below the 125,000-unit annual capacity target and no volume ramp achieved. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target and pre-2027 consumer deliveries, yet Tesla has not published an official MSRP, opened a configurator, or completed any qualifying retail transactions. Regulatory review of the steering-wheel-free design, the need for additional FSD data specific to the new chassis, and the company’s revised 2027 timeline for broader availability keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 retail sale at or below the threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,432End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab production began in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas with an initial focus on building a proprietary robotaxi fleet rather than enabling retail sales. Only dozens of units have entered limited unsupervised service in Austin as of mid-September, with output still far below the 125,000-unit annual capacity target and no volume ramp achieved. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target and pre-2027 consumer deliveries, yet Tesla has not published an official MSRP, opened a configurator, or completed any qualifying retail transactions. Regulatory review of the steering-wheel-free design, the need for additional FSD data specific to the new chassis, and the company’s revised 2027 timeline for broader availability keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 retail sale at or below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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