Apple's reported lobbying of the Trump administration in mid-2026 for clearance to source DRAM from CXMT amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes created initial trader interest, yet the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchases this year reflects persistent regulatory and political barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list, with ongoing risks of Entity List placement that would impose licensing hurdles for U.S. firms, while Republican lawmakers have signaled strong opposition to deepening dependence on Chinese suppliers. Recent CXMT announcements of mass-produced fifth-generation LPDDR5X chips with improved density and yields demonstrate technical competitiveness, but high fab utilization and capacity largely committed through 2027 limit near-term availability for Apple. No confirmed supply agreements or regulatory approvals have materialized as of September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated21% chance
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% chance
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's reported lobbying of the Trump administration in mid-2026 for clearance to source DRAM from CXMT amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes created initial trader interest, yet the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchases this year reflects persistent regulatory and political barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list, with ongoing risks of Entity List placement that would impose licensing hurdles for U.S. firms, while Republican lawmakers have signaled strong opposition to deepening dependence on Chinese suppliers. Recent CXMT announcements of mass-produced fifth-generation LPDDR5X chips with improved density and yields demonstrate technical competitiveness, but high fab utilization and capacity largely committed through 2027 limit near-term availability for Apple. No confirmed supply agreements or regulatory approvals have materialized as of September 2026.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$22,350End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple's reported lobbying of the Trump administration in mid-2026 for clearance to source DRAM from CXMT amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes created initial trader interest, yet the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchases this year reflects persistent regulatory and political barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list, with ongoing risks of Entity List placement that would impose licensing hurdles for U.S. firms, while Republican lawmakers have signaled strong opposition to deepening dependence on Chinese suppliers. Recent CXMT announcements of mass-produced fifth-generation LPDDR5X chips with improved density and yields demonstrate technical competitiveness, but high fab utilization and capacity largely committed through 2027 limit near-term availability for Apple. No confirmed supply agreements or regulatory approvals have materialized as of September 2026.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$22,350End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's reported lobbying of the Trump administration in mid-2026 for clearance to source DRAM from CXMT amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes created initial trader interest, yet the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchases this year reflects persistent regulatory and political barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H military-linked list, with ongoing risks of Entity List placement that would impose licensing hurdles for U.S. firms, while Republican lawmakers have signaled strong opposition to deepening dependence on Chinese suppliers. Recent CXMT announcements of mass-produced fifth-generation LPDDR5X chips with improved density and yields demonstrate technical competitiveness, but high fab utilization and capacity largely committed through 2027 limit near-term availability for Apple. No confirmed supply agreements or regulatory approvals have materialized as of September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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