**Diplomatic tensions have risen with several U.S. partners in recent months, yet no country has moved to expel a U.S. ambassador.** Canada faces the most visible friction, including a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade disputes and comments referencing Canada as the “51st state,” though Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled no such step will be taken. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a presidential social media post depicting hypothetical territorial changes, while Brazil’s visa dispute with Washington involved the revocation of its own ambassador’s credentials rather than action against the U.S. representative. Broader U.S. personnel shifts, including recalls of its own envoys, have not prompted reciprocal expulsions. These episodes illustrate ongoing strain in bilateral relations without crossing the threshold of formal persona non grata declarations. With the December 31 deadline approaching and no confirmed expulsion actions underway, trader pricing at 78.5% for “No” aligns with the pattern that such measures remain infrequent even amid pointed disagreements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Diplomatic tensions have risen with several U.S. partners in recent months, yet no country has moved to expel a U.S. ambassador.** Canada faces the most visible friction, including a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade disputes and comments referencing Canada as the “51st state,” though Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled no such step will be taken. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a presidential social media post depicting hypothetical territorial changes, while Brazil’s visa dispute with Washington involved the revocation of its own ambassador’s credentials rather than action against the U.S. representative. Broader U.S. personnel shifts, including recalls of its own envoys, have not prompted reciprocal expulsions. These episodes illustrate ongoing strain in bilateral relations without crossing the threshold of formal persona non grata declarations. With the December 31 deadline approaching and no confirmed expulsion actions underway, trader pricing at 78.5% for “No” aligns with the pattern that such measures remain infrequent even amid pointed disagreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Diplomatic tensions have risen with several U.S. partners in recent months, yet no country has moved to expel a U.S. ambassador.** Canada faces the most visible friction, including a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade disputes and comments referencing Canada as the “51st state,” though Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled no such step will be taken. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a presidential social media post depicting hypothetical territorial changes, while Brazil’s visa dispute with Washington involved the revocation of its own ambassador’s credentials rather than action against the U.S. representative. Broader U.S. personnel shifts, including recalls of its own envoys, have not prompted reciprocal expulsions. These episodes illustrate ongoing strain in bilateral relations without crossing the threshold of formal persona non grata declarations. With the December 31 deadline approaching and no confirmed expulsion actions underway, trader pricing at 78.5% for “No” aligns with the pattern that such measures remain infrequent even amid pointed disagreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Diplomatic tensions have risen with several U.S. partners in recent months, yet no country has moved to expel a U.S. ambassador.** Canada faces the most visible friction, including a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade disputes and comments referencing Canada as the “51st state,” though Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled no such step will be taken. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a presidential social media post depicting hypothetical territorial changes, while Brazil’s visa dispute with Washington involved the revocation of its own ambassador’s credentials rather than action against the U.S. representative. Broader U.S. personnel shifts, including recalls of its own envoys, have not prompted reciprocal expulsions. These episodes illustrate ongoing strain in bilateral relations without crossing the threshold of formal persona non grata declarations. With the December 31 deadline approaching and no confirmed expulsion actions underway, trader pricing at 78.5% for “No” aligns with the pattern that such measures remain infrequent even amid pointed disagreements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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