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icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Politics·Middle East

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Politics·Middle East

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$1,665,254 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,665,254 Vol.

Polymarket

Kuwait

$76,142 Vol.

10%

Somaliland

$117,089 Vol.

9%

Lebanon

$77,035 Vol.

8%

Saudi Arabia

$349,502 Vol.

8%

Syria

$164,512 Vol.

7%

Jordan

$9,994 Vol.

7%

Egypt

$7,414 Vol.

6%

Qatar

$8,800 Vol.

5%

Oman

$182,170 Vol.

5%

Azerbaijan

$175,784 Vol.

5%

Pakistan

$9,051 Vol.

3%

Turkey

$487,763 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic upgrades, including Israel-Morocco agreements to establish full embassies and expand flights by late 2026, alongside Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession, sustain momentum for further normalization. Israeli officials highlight Kuwait as a near-term candidate, citing shifting regional perceptions amid Iran-linked threats, with estimates of a new signatory within months. Saudi Arabia remains central to trader assessments due to its scale and stalled talks, where U.S. nuclear cooperation and Houthi security concerns create leverage but Palestinian statehood conditions persist as a barrier. Broader U.S. pressure targets Qatar, Oman, and Central Asian states, while procedural factors like bilateral agreements and recognition timelines shape resolution before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,665,254
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 2:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic upgrades, including Israel-Morocco agreements to establish full embassies and expand flights by late 2026, alongside Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession, sustain momentum for further normalization. Israeli officials highlight Kuwait as a near-term candidate, citing shifting regional perceptions amid Iran-linked threats, with estimates of a new signatory within months. Saudi Arabia remains central to trader assessments due to its scale and stalled talks, where U.S. nuclear cooperation and Houthi security concerns create leverage but Palestinian statehood conditions persist as a barrier. Broader U.S. pressure targets Qatar, Oman, and Central Asian states, while procedural factors like bilateral agreements and recognition timelines shape resolution before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,665,254
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 2:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kuwait" at 10%, followed by "Somaliland" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is "Kuwait" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Somaliland" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.