Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” holds the clearest edge among the six VMA Best R&B nominees at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by the artist’s multiple nods and consistent commercial pull. The remaining field remains tightly bunched, with Kehlani’s “Folded” at 24.0% and Justin Bieber’s “YUKON” at 23.5% reflecting strong fan bases and recent streaming traction, while lower odds on Chris Brown, Dave & Tems, and Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis underscore a crowded category. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, trader sentiment hinges on last-minute momentum shifts, historical VMA voting patterns favoring established names, and the impact of each track’s broader campaign visibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Best R&B 2026
VMA Best R&B 2026
I Just Might (Bruno Mars) 41%
Folded (Kehlani) 24%
Yukon (Justin Bieber) 22%
Is It a Crime (Mariah the Scientist and Kali Uchis) 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
I Just Might (Bruno Mars)
41%
Folded (Kehlani)
24%
Yukon (Justin Bieber)
22%
Is It a Crime (Mariah the Scientist and Kali Uchis)
9%
Raindance (Dave and Tems)
7%
It Depends / Obvious (Chris Brown)
5%
I Just Might (Bruno Mars) 41%
Folded (Kehlani) 24%
Yukon (Justin Bieber) 22%
Is It a Crime (Mariah the Scientist and Kali Uchis) 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
I Just Might (Bruno Mars)
$328 Vol.
41%
Folded (Kehlani)
$116 Vol.
24%
Yukon (Justin Bieber)
$0 Vol.
22%
Is It a Crime (Mariah the Scientist and Kali Uchis)
$0 Vol.
9%
Raindance (Dave and Tems)
$61 Vol.
7%
It Depends / Obvious (Chris Brown)
$142 Vol.
5%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” holds the clearest edge among the six VMA Best R&B nominees at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by the artist’s multiple nods and consistent commercial pull. The remaining field remains tightly bunched, with Kehlani’s “Folded” at 24.0% and Justin Bieber’s “YUKON” at 23.5% reflecting strong fan bases and recent streaming traction, while lower odds on Chris Brown, Dave & Tems, and Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis underscore a crowded category. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, trader sentiment hinges on last-minute momentum shifts, historical VMA voting patterns favoring established names, and the impact of each track’s broader campaign visibility.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$647End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” holds the clearest edge among the six VMA Best R&B nominees at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by the artist’s multiple nods and consistent commercial pull. The remaining field remains tightly bunched, with Kehlani’s “Folded” at 24.0% and Justin Bieber’s “YUKON” at 23.5% reflecting strong fan bases and recent streaming traction, while lower odds on Chris Brown, Dave & Tems, and Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis underscore a crowded category. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, trader sentiment hinges on last-minute momentum shifts, historical VMA voting patterns favoring established names, and the impact of each track’s broader campaign visibility.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best R&B when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$647End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” holds the clearest edge among the six VMA Best R&B nominees at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by the artist’s multiple nods and consistent commercial pull. The remaining field remains tightly bunched, with Kehlani’s “Folded” at 24.0% and Justin Bieber’s “YUKON” at 23.5% reflecting strong fan bases and recent streaming traction, while lower odds on Chris Brown, Dave & Tems, and Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis underscore a crowded category. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, trader sentiment hinges on last-minute momentum shifts, historical VMA voting patterns favoring established names, and the impact of each track’s broader campaign visibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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