Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, her incumbency after appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and her prior service as state attorney general. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly nine points, aligning with forecasters rating the race Likely or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 vote. Nixon's August primary victory over Alex Vindman elevated a progressive Democratic nominee focused on affordability issues, yet this has enabled Republican attacks tying her to democratic socialist positions that resonate poorly with Florida's voter base. A major recent catalyst remains the leaked grand jury report on the Hope Florida fund transfer, which Democrats have used to question Moody's judgment while Republicans emphasize continuity and law enforcement support. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking legal developments from the ongoing investigation, unexpected turnout shifts among key demographics, or significant national political realignments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$110,569 Vol.
$110,569 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$110,569 Vol.
$110,569 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$55,109 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,461 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, her incumbency after appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and her prior service as state attorney general. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly nine points, aligning with forecasters rating the race Likely or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 vote. Nixon's August primary victory over Alex Vindman elevated a progressive Democratic nominee focused on affordability issues, yet this has enabled Republican attacks tying her to democratic socialist positions that resonate poorly with Florida's voter base. A major recent catalyst remains the leaked grand jury report on the Hope Florida fund transfer, which Democrats have used to question Moody's judgment while Republicans emphasize continuity and law enforcement support. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking legal developments from the ongoing investigation, unexpected turnout shifts among key demographics, or significant national political realignments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$110,569Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, her incumbency after appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and her prior service as state attorney general. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly nine points, aligning with forecasters rating the race Likely or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 vote. Nixon's August primary victory over Alex Vindman elevated a progressive Democratic nominee focused on affordability issues, yet this has enabled Republican attacks tying her to democratic socialist positions that resonate poorly with Florida's voter base. A major recent catalyst remains the leaked grand jury report on the Hope Florida fund transfer, which Democrats have used to question Moody's judgment while Republicans emphasize continuity and law enforcement support. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking legal developments from the ongoing investigation, unexpected turnout shifts among key demographics, or significant national political realignments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$110,569Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, her incumbency after appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and her prior service as state attorney general. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly nine points, aligning with forecasters rating the race Likely or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 vote. Nixon's August primary victory over Alex Vindman elevated a progressive Democratic nominee focused on affordability issues, yet this has enabled Republican attacks tying her to democratic socialist positions that resonate poorly with Florida's voter base. A major recent catalyst remains the leaked grand jury report on the Hope Florida fund transfer, which Democrats have used to question Moody's judgment while Republicans emphasize continuity and law enforcement support. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking legal developments from the ongoing investigation, unexpected turnout shifts among key demographics, or significant national political realignments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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