Strong corporate earnings growth, led by technology and AI-related capital spending, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the S&P 500's 2026 close. With the index near 7,636 after recent sessions, Wall Street strategists have lifted year-end targets to 7,950–8,100, citing second-quarter beats by 86% of reporting companies and projected 25%+ EPS gains. These fundamentals underpin the 37.5% market-implied probability for a close above 8,000. However, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation have introduced downside risks, supporting the combined 45% weighting on the 7,000–8,000 range. Upcoming CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 44%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$6,500-$7,000 12%
$41,636 Vol.
$41,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
7%
$6,000-$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
12%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
23%
>$8,000
37%
>$8,000 44%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$6,500-$7,000 12%
$41,636 Vol.
$41,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$21,150 Vol.
7%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,365 Vol.
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,578 Vol.
12%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,746 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,293 Vol.
23%
>$8,000
$6,504 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, led by technology and AI-related capital spending, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the S&P 500's 2026 close. With the index near 7,636 after recent sessions, Wall Street strategists have lifted year-end targets to 7,950–8,100, citing second-quarter beats by 86% of reporting companies and projected 25%+ EPS gains. These fundamentals underpin the 37.5% market-implied probability for a close above 8,000. However, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation have introduced downside risks, supporting the combined 45% weighting on the 7,000–8,000 range. Upcoming CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$41,636End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, led by technology and AI-related capital spending, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the S&P 500's 2026 close. With the index near 7,636 after recent sessions, Wall Street strategists have lifted year-end targets to 7,950–8,100, citing second-quarter beats by 86% of reporting companies and projected 25%+ EPS gains. These fundamentals underpin the 37.5% market-implied probability for a close above 8,000. However, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation have introduced downside risks, supporting the combined 45% weighting on the 7,000–8,000 range. Upcoming CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$41,636End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong corporate earnings growth, led by technology and AI-related capital spending, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the S&P 500's 2026 close. With the index near 7,636 after recent sessions, Wall Street strategists have lifted year-end targets to 7,950–8,100, citing second-quarter beats by 86% of reporting companies and projected 25%+ EPS gains. These fundamentals underpin the 37.5% market-implied probability for a close above 8,000. However, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation have introduced downside risks, supporting the combined 45% weighting on the 7,000–8,000 range. Upcoming CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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