OpenAI holds a commanding 70% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of November, driven by its rapid iteration on agentic large language models and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous task execution. Traders appear to view its competitive edge in benchmarks and developer ecosystem as durable through the period, despite the inherent uncertainty of model timelines. Other labs such as Anthropic at 17% and Google at 3.4% trail due to slower visible progress on similar agent frameworks, while numerous smaller players sit near 50% or below, reflecting fragmented market expectations. Upcoming model releases and capability demos remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 70%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 5%
Amazon 4.6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
70%
Anthropic
17%
Moonshot
5%
Amazon
5%
3%
Z.ai
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
3%
Alibaba
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Mistral
3%
ByteDance
3%
Xiaomi
3%
Microsoft
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
2%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
OpenAI 70%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 5%
Amazon 4.6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$628 Vol.
70%
Anthropic
$590 Vol.
17%
Moonshot
$525 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$204 Vol.
5%
$470 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$190 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$213 Vol.
3%
Meta
$180 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$168 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$168 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$168 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$168 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$158 Vol.
3%
Microsoft
$168 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$284 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$188 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$387 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$475 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$168 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds a commanding 70% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of November, driven by its rapid iteration on agentic large language models and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous task execution. Traders appear to view its competitive edge in benchmarks and developer ecosystem as durable through the period, despite the inherent uncertainty of model timelines. Other labs such as Anthropic at 17% and Google at 3.4% trail due to slower visible progress on similar agent frameworks, while numerous smaller players sit near 50% or below, reflecting fragmented market expectations. Upcoming model releases and capability demos remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$5,503End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds a commanding 70% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of November, driven by its rapid iteration on agentic large language models and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous task execution. Traders appear to view its competitive edge in benchmarks and developer ecosystem as durable through the period, despite the inherent uncertainty of model timelines. Other labs such as Anthropic at 17% and Google at 3.4% trail due to slower visible progress on similar agent frameworks, while numerous smaller players sit near 50% or below, reflecting fragmented market expectations. Upcoming model releases and capability demos remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,503End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...OpenAI holds a commanding 70% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of November, driven by its rapid iteration on agentic large language models and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous task execution. Traders appear to view its competitive edge in benchmarks and developer ecosystem as durable through the period, despite the inherent uncertainty of model timelines. Other labs such as Anthropic at 17% and Google at 3.4% trail due to slower visible progress on similar agent frameworks, while numerous smaller players sit near 50% or below, reflecting fragmented market expectations. Upcoming model releases and capability demos remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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