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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

The Odyssey 28%

The Black Ball 27%

The Invite 24%

Project Hail Mary 6.7%

Polymarket

$20,389 Vol.

The Odyssey 28%

The Black Ball 27%

The Invite 24%

Project Hail Mary 6.7%

Polymarket

$20,389 Vol.

The Odyssey

$1,901 Vol.

28%

The Black Ball

$10,117 Vol.

27%

The Invite

$4,177 Vol.

24%

Project Hail Mary

$449 Vol.

7%

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

$246 Vol.

6%

Ink

$829 Vol.

6%

Dune: Part Three

$393 Vol.

6%

Wildwood

$512 Vol.

5%

The Social Reckoning

$232 Vol.

5%

Clarissa

$162 Vol.

2%

Cry to Heaven

$201 Vol.

1%

Saturn Return

$185 Vol.

1%

All of a Sudden

$475 Vol.

1%

Toy Story 5

$323 Vol.

1%

The Whisper Man

$187 Vol.

1%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With multiple frontrunners clustered near the top, trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar reflects the early and fluid nature of the awards season. The Odyssey holds a slight edge at 28% implied probability, followed closely by The Black Ball at 26.5% and The Invite at 24.5%, indicating strong competition among anticipated 2026 releases. Lower odds for titles like Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three suggest they trail pending critical reception and guild recognition. As precursor awards and festival screenings unfold, shifts in momentum could emerge from reviews, box office performance, and industry buzz, underscoring the unpredictability of Academy voting in this category.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,389
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With multiple frontrunners clustered near the top, trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar reflects the early and fluid nature of the awards season. The Odyssey holds a slight edge at 28% implied probability, followed closely by The Black Ball at 26.5% and The Invite at 24.5%, indicating strong competition among anticipated 2026 releases. Lower odds for titles like Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three suggest they trail pending critical reception and guild recognition. As precursor awards and festival screenings unfold, shifts in momentum could emerge from reviews, box office performance, and industry buzz, underscoring the unpredictability of Academy voting in this category.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,389
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Odyssey" at 28%, followed by "The Black Ball" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" has generated $20.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" is "The Odyssey" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Black Ball" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.