Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: August
Nothing Ever Happens: August
Nothing
>99% chance
$32,677 Vol.
$32,677 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Nothing
>99% chance
$32,677 Vol.
$32,677 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$32,677End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Volume
$32,677End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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