**Persistent late-summer warmth across central Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 22, 2026, with the official Austin-Bergstrom minimum reaching 71°F amid a record-hot monthly start.** Highs near 100°F and above-normal dew points limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, producing a minimum 5°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 66°F. Forecasters and traders weighed model guidance showing mid-70s lows against potential for clearer conditions or subtle frontal influences that could allow brief drops into the upper 60s. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 68–73°F bins reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes driven by the strength of the warm air mass, humidity retention, and local wind patterns rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Official NWS observations ultimately anchored resolution near the upper end of that band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 22?
72-73°F 99.6%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$629 Vol.
$629 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
Yes
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
72-73°F 99.6%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$629 Vol.
$629 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$6 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$125 Vol.
Yes
74-75°F
$126 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$30 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$230 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$67 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$15 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$15 Vol.
No
86°F or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer warmth across central Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 22, 2026, with the official Austin-Bergstrom minimum reaching 71°F amid a record-hot monthly start.** Highs near 100°F and above-normal dew points limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, producing a minimum 5°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 66°F. Forecasters and traders weighed model guidance showing mid-70s lows against potential for clearer conditions or subtle frontal influences that could allow brief drops into the upper 60s. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 68–73°F bins reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes driven by the strength of the warm air mass, humidity retention, and local wind patterns rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Official NWS observations ultimately anchored resolution near the upper end of that band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$629End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer warmth across central Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 22, 2026, with the official Austin-Bergstrom minimum reaching 71°F amid a record-hot monthly start.** Highs near 100°F and above-normal dew points limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, producing a minimum 5°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 66°F. Forecasters and traders weighed model guidance showing mid-70s lows against potential for clearer conditions or subtle frontal influences that could allow brief drops into the upper 60s. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 68–73°F bins reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes driven by the strength of the warm air mass, humidity retention, and local wind patterns rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Official NWS observations ultimately anchored resolution near the upper end of that band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$629End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Persistent late-summer warmth across central Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 22, 2026, with the official Austin-Bergstrom minimum reaching 71°F amid a record-hot monthly start.** Highs near 100°F and above-normal dew points limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, producing a minimum 5°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 66°F. Forecasters and traders weighed model guidance showing mid-70s lows against potential for clearer conditions or subtle frontal influences that could allow brief drops into the upper 60s. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 68–73°F bins reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes driven by the strength of the warm air mass, humidity retention, and local wind patterns rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Official NWS observations ultimately anchored resolution near the upper end of that band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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