Recent polling and forecaster ratings position Iowa's 1st and 3rd congressional districts as toss-ups, with Democrats favored to flip both amid a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground in midterms. In IA-1, Democrat Christina Bohannan holds narrow leads or ties in recent surveys against Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, building on her 2024 near-miss. IA-3 features a similarly competitive matchup between Republican Zach Nunn and Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. IA-2, an open Republican seat, rates as lean Republican or toss-up depending on the model, while IA-4 remains solidly Republican. These dynamics, combined with broader generic ballot advantages for Democrats and subdued presidential approval, drive trader expectations toward two or three Democratic seats rather than a sweep or shutout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3 41%
2 27%
0 19.9%
1 13.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
0
15%
1
21%
2
27%
3
41%
4
7%
3 41%
2 27%
0 19.9%
1 13.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
0
$740 Vol.
15%
1
$999 Vol.
21%
2
$2,705 Vol.
27%
3
$2,097 Vol.
41%
4
$493 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and forecaster ratings position Iowa's 1st and 3rd congressional districts as toss-ups, with Democrats favored to flip both amid a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground in midterms. In IA-1, Democrat Christina Bohannan holds narrow leads or ties in recent surveys against Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, building on her 2024 near-miss. IA-3 features a similarly competitive matchup between Republican Zach Nunn and Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. IA-2, an open Republican seat, rates as lean Republican or toss-up depending on the model, while IA-4 remains solidly Republican. These dynamics, combined with broader generic ballot advantages for Democrats and subdued presidential approval, drive trader expectations toward two or three Democratic seats rather than a sweep or shutout.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$7,033End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and forecaster ratings position Iowa's 1st and 3rd congressional districts as toss-ups, with Democrats favored to flip both amid a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground in midterms. In IA-1, Democrat Christina Bohannan holds narrow leads or ties in recent surveys against Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, building on her 2024 near-miss. IA-3 features a similarly competitive matchup between Republican Zach Nunn and Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. IA-2, an open Republican seat, rates as lean Republican or toss-up depending on the model, while IA-4 remains solidly Republican. These dynamics, combined with broader generic ballot advantages for Democrats and subdued presidential approval, drive trader expectations toward two or three Democratic seats rather than a sweep or shutout.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,033End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and forecaster ratings position Iowa's 1st and 3rd congressional districts as toss-ups, with Democrats favored to flip both amid a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground in midterms. In IA-1, Democrat Christina Bohannan holds narrow leads or ties in recent surveys against Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, building on her 2024 near-miss. IA-3 features a similarly competitive matchup between Republican Zach Nunn and Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. IA-2, an open Republican seat, rates as lean Republican or toss-up depending on the model, while IA-4 remains solidly Republican. These dynamics, combined with broader generic ballot advantages for Democrats and subdued presidential approval, drive trader expectations toward two or three Democratic seats rather than a sweep or shutout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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