Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and ECMWF ensembles point to an afternoon high near 25–26°C for Mexico City on September 22, with peak heating expected between 14:00–16:00 local time under partly cloudy skies. At the city’s elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, strong daytime insolation can drive rapid warming when cloud cover remains limited, while scattered convection or increased humidity from the lingering rainy season tends to cap temperatures. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with minor differences arising from urban heat island effects, wind patterns, and exact timing of any afternoon showers. The near-even market split between 26°C and 27°C or higher reflects this tight uncertainty range, as small shifts in observed cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could push the official maximum across the threshold. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour model runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 22?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 22?
26°C 48%
27°C or higher 37%
25°C 15%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
15%
26°C
48%
27°C or higher
37%
26°C 48%
27°C or higher 37%
25°C 15%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
18°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$12 Vol.
1%
23°C
$138 Vol.
2%
24°C
$244 Vol.
4%
25°C
$194 Vol.
15%
26°C
$612 Vol.
48%
27°C or higher
$663 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and ECMWF ensembles point to an afternoon high near 25–26°C for Mexico City on September 22, with peak heating expected between 14:00–16:00 local time under partly cloudy skies. At the city’s elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, strong daytime insolation can drive rapid warming when cloud cover remains limited, while scattered convection or increased humidity from the lingering rainy season tends to cap temperatures. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with minor differences arising from urban heat island effects, wind patterns, and exact timing of any afternoon showers. The near-even market split between 26°C and 27°C or higher reflects this tight uncertainty range, as small shifts in observed cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could push the official maximum across the threshold. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour model runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,999End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and ECMWF ensembles point to an afternoon high near 25–26°C for Mexico City on September 22, with peak heating expected between 14:00–16:00 local time under partly cloudy skies. At the city’s elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, strong daytime insolation can drive rapid warming when cloud cover remains limited, while scattered convection or increased humidity from the lingering rainy season tends to cap temperatures. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with minor differences arising from urban heat island effects, wind patterns, and exact timing of any afternoon showers. The near-even market split between 26°C and 27°C or higher reflects this tight uncertainty range, as small shifts in observed cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could push the official maximum across the threshold. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour model runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,999End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and ECMWF ensembles point to an afternoon high near 25–26°C for Mexico City on September 22, with peak heating expected between 14:00–16:00 local time under partly cloudy skies. At the city’s elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, strong daytime insolation can drive rapid warming when cloud cover remains limited, while scattered convection or increased humidity from the lingering rainy season tends to cap temperatures. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with minor differences arising from urban heat island effects, wind patterns, and exact timing of any afternoon showers. The near-even market split between 26°C and 27°C or higher reflects this tight uncertainty range, as small shifts in observed cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could push the official maximum across the threshold. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour model runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions