Persistent late-summer warmth across southeast Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 23, 2026, with the official minimum at Houston Intercontinental Airport reaching only 77°F amid a broad heat dome and dew points in the mid-70s. Recent model runs and climatological analogs showed minimal nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, pushing trader consensus toward the 80–81°F bin at 94.8% implied probability. A weak frontal boundary remained north of the region, delaying any meaningful advection of drier or cooler air until later in the week. Scenarios that could still challenge this outcome include localized radiational cooling in suburban or rural spots dropping a degree or two below the airport reading, or minor revisions in the final National Weather Service climate summary once all mesonet data are quality-controlled.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
80-81°F 100%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$1,010 Vol.
$1,010 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$1,010 Vol.
$1,010 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
$215 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$15 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$123 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$29 Vol.
Yes
82-83°F
$8 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$15 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$215 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$175 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$215 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer warmth across southeast Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 23, 2026, with the official minimum at Houston Intercontinental Airport reaching only 77°F amid a broad heat dome and dew points in the mid-70s. Recent model runs and climatological analogs showed minimal nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, pushing trader consensus toward the 80–81°F bin at 94.8% implied probability. A weak frontal boundary remained north of the region, delaying any meaningful advection of drier or cooler air until later in the week. Scenarios that could still challenge this outcome include localized radiational cooling in suburban or rural spots dropping a degree or two below the airport reading, or minor revisions in the final National Weather Service climate summary once all mesonet data are quality-controlled.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,010End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer warmth across southeast Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 23, 2026, with the official minimum at Houston Intercontinental Airport reaching only 77°F amid a broad heat dome and dew points in the mid-70s. Recent model runs and climatological analogs showed minimal nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, pushing trader consensus toward the 80–81°F bin at 94.8% implied probability. A weak frontal boundary remained north of the region, delaying any meaningful advection of drier or cooler air until later in the week. Scenarios that could still challenge this outcome include localized radiational cooling in suburban or rural spots dropping a degree or two below the airport reading, or minor revisions in the final National Weather Service climate summary once all mesonet data are quality-controlled.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,010End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent late-summer warmth across southeast Texas kept overnight lows elevated on September 23, 2026, with the official minimum at Houston Intercontinental Airport reaching only 77°F amid a broad heat dome and dew points in the mid-70s. Recent model runs and climatological analogs showed minimal nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, pushing trader consensus toward the 80–81°F bin at 94.8% implied probability. A weak frontal boundary remained north of the region, delaying any meaningful advection of drier or cooler air until later in the week. Scenarios that could still challenge this outcome include localized radiational cooling in suburban or rural spots dropping a degree or two below the airport reading, or minor revisions in the final National Weather Service climate summary once all mesonet data are quality-controlled.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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