Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 32°C as Manila’s highest temperature for September 14 due to consistent official forecasts and observational data from PAGASA and regional models showing afternoon peaks reaching that threshold amid typical southwest monsoon conditions. High humidity near 80-90%, light variable winds, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms have maintained daytime maxima close to the long-term September average of 31°C without significant cooling or intensification. Model consensus points to stable atmospheric patterns with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover expected to suppress readings below this level. A realistic shift away from 32°C would require either heavier sustained rainfall or an unforecasted surge in solar heating that pushes observations to 33°C or higher before evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 14?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$29,169 Vol.
$29,169 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$29,169 Vol.
$29,169 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
$297 Vol.
No
27°C
$297 Vol.
No
28°C
$689 Vol.
No
29°C
$886 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,210 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,334 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,175 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$6,362 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,237 Vol.
No
35°C
$466 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$217 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 32°C as Manila’s highest temperature for September 14 due to consistent official forecasts and observational data from PAGASA and regional models showing afternoon peaks reaching that threshold amid typical southwest monsoon conditions. High humidity near 80-90%, light variable winds, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms have maintained daytime maxima close to the long-term September average of 31°C without significant cooling or intensification. Model consensus points to stable atmospheric patterns with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover expected to suppress readings below this level. A realistic shift away from 32°C would require either heavier sustained rainfall or an unforecasted surge in solar heating that pushes observations to 33°C or higher before evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$29,169End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 32°C as Manila’s highest temperature for September 14 due to consistent official forecasts and observational data from PAGASA and regional models showing afternoon peaks reaching that threshold amid typical southwest monsoon conditions. High humidity near 80-90%, light variable winds, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms have maintained daytime maxima close to the long-term September average of 31°C without significant cooling or intensification. Model consensus points to stable atmospheric patterns with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover expected to suppress readings below this level. A realistic shift away from 32°C would require either heavier sustained rainfall or an unforecasted surge in solar heating that pushes observations to 33°C or higher before evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,169End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 32°C as Manila’s highest temperature for September 14 due to consistent official forecasts and observational data from PAGASA and regional models showing afternoon peaks reaching that threshold amid typical southwest monsoon conditions. High humidity near 80-90%, light variable winds, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms have maintained daytime maxima close to the long-term September average of 31°C without significant cooling or intensification. Model consensus points to stable atmospheric patterns with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover expected to suppress readings below this level. A realistic shift away from 32°C would require either heavier sustained rainfall or an unforecasted surge in solar heating that pushes observations to 33°C or higher before evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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