**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a daily maximum near 25 °C for Ankara on 15 September 2026, driving near-certain market pricing at that level.** Official guidance and ensemble runs show afternoon peaks of 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Anatolian plateau where September averages hover around 26 °C. Current surface readings from local stations already reflect this range, with temperatures now falling into the mid-teens Celsius overnight. Resolution hinges on the precise highest hourly or instantaneous value recorded by the primary meteorological network; minor upward revisions from localized heating or station-specific microclimates remain the main uncertainty, though current data and model agreement leave little room for outcomes outside 24–26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 15?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 15?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$28,121 Vol.
$28,121 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$28,121 Vol.
$28,121 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$617 Vol.
No
20°C
$542 Vol.
No
21°C
$628 Vol.
No
22°C
$326 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,418 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,701 Vol.
No
25°C
$10,013 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$5,227 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,597 Vol.
No
28°C
$721 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$332 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a daily maximum near 25 °C for Ankara on 15 September 2026, driving near-certain market pricing at that level.** Official guidance and ensemble runs show afternoon peaks of 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Anatolian plateau where September averages hover around 26 °C. Current surface readings from local stations already reflect this range, with temperatures now falling into the mid-teens Celsius overnight. Resolution hinges on the precise highest hourly or instantaneous value recorded by the primary meteorological network; minor upward revisions from localized heating or station-specific microclimates remain the main uncertainty, though current data and model agreement leave little room for outcomes outside 24–26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$28,121End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a daily maximum near 25 °C for Ankara on 15 September 2026, driving near-certain market pricing at that level.** Official guidance and ensemble runs show afternoon peaks of 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Anatolian plateau where September averages hover around 26 °C. Current surface readings from local stations already reflect this range, with temperatures now falling into the mid-teens Celsius overnight. Resolution hinges on the precise highest hourly or instantaneous value recorded by the primary meteorological network; minor upward revisions from localized heating or station-specific microclimates remain the main uncertainty, though current data and model agreement leave little room for outcomes outside 24–26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,121End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Forecast models and real-time observations have converged on a daily maximum near 25 °C for Ankara on 15 September 2026, driving near-certain market pricing at that level.** Official guidance and ensemble runs show afternoon peaks of 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Anatolian plateau where September averages hover around 26 °C. Current surface readings from local stations already reflect this range, with temperatures now falling into the mid-teens Celsius overnight. Resolution hinges on the precise highest hourly or instantaneous value recorded by the primary meteorological network; minor upward revisions from localized heating or station-specific microclimates remain the main uncertainty, though current data and model agreement leave little room for outcomes outside 24–26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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